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7.69 5.32 1.70 1998 2.55 28.58 13.52 8.62 5.11 1.61 1999 21.26 21.04 8.74 0.41 4.80 2.68   Average 18.81 13.11 5.36


5.19 3.82 3.17 Standard deviation 39.68 20.21 8.12 6.38 3.29 4.46 Minimum 52.71 45.56 8.74 5.81 1.59 10.27 Maximum 187.82 54.56 32.68 33.39 14.95 18.13     Sources: Inflation data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Security return data for 1926-1995: Center for Research in Security Prices. Security return data since 1996: Returns on appropriate index portfolios: Large stocks: S&P 500 Small stocks: Russell 2000 Long-term government bonds: Lehman Bros. long-term Treasury index Intermediate-term government bonds: Lehman Bros. intermediate-term Treasury index T-bills: Salomon Smith Barney 3-month U.S. T-bill index     "Large Stocks" in Table 5.2 refers to Standard & Poors market-value-weighted portfo- lio of 500 U.S. common stocks with the largest market capitalization. "Small Stocks" represents the value-weighted portfolio of the lowest-capitalization quintile (that is, the firms in the bottom 20% of all companies traded on the NYSE when ranked by market cap- italization). Since 1982, this portfolio has included smaller stocks listed on the Amex and Nasdaq markets as well. The portfolio contains approximately 2,000 stocks with average capitalization of $100 million. I. Introduction 5. History of Interest Rates and Risk Premiums The McGraw−Hill Companies, 2001           140 PART I Introduction     "Long-Term T-Bonds" are represented by a government bond with at least a 20-year maturity and approximately current-level coupon rate.2 "Intermediate-Term T-Bonds" have around a seven-year maturity with a current-level coupon rate. "T-Bills" in Table 5.2 are of approximately 30-day maturity, and the one-year HPR rep- resents a policy of "rolling over" the bills as they mature. Because T-bill rates can change from month to month, the total rate of return on these T